Issue #144: Why CTR isn’t the be all, end all

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So about 2 weeks ago, I sent out this email that got some SERIOUS pushback.
In fact I think I touched a nerve with a few of you.
Here’s a small sampling of the comments that I got:
  • Hey Avi, I usually love your content, but you’ve lost the plot on this one. Your odds don’t match up with CTR.
  • Figures that a guy who runs a white label Google Ads agency would think that SEO is a lottery ticket. But your lotto stats are wrong.
  • You are way off base, Avi. The CTR for the 5th organic result is between 5-7% not less than 2%.
And as I know that if one person replies to my email then there are probably another 99 that agree with them but didn’t take the time to respond…
Then I better address the thousand or so of you who think that I forgot how to do math.
First off, though, you Blink subscribers are a smart bunch.
Along with your comments, you sent me back links to some great articles about CTR for SERPs. And as I love data, I spent a considerable part of last Saturday reading thru the articles and getting up to speed on the most recent data on CTR for both organic and paid search listings.
But the other thing I realized from your responses is that…
We aren’t comparing apples to apples here.
My angry mob at the palace gates is quoting me Click thru Rates. I, on the other hand, was referencing the percentage of actual clicks each organic position got compared to the total number of clicks that a search generated.
We are both doing “click” math but we are using two different equations:
Avi Equation: Clicks/Total # of Clicks
Angry Mob Equation: Clicks/Impressions (this is the CTR equation)
Same numerator but a very different denominator.
My equation represents that there is a pool of clicks and each organic position gets a certain amount of them. It doesn’t take into account impressions because frankly, and this might sound odd from a PPC guy, it doesn’t care about impressions. It’s downstream of impressions.
But the other equation is built on impressions. And here is something that most people don’t consider when looking at impressions or CTR:
Impressions fall off as you go down a SERP page.
As you can see in this graphic, the impressions drop drastically when you move from Position #1 to Position #5 (note: this is a graph from a smaller sample size than the data my email was built off…so not the same numbers…just using it to illustrate impressions)
The #1 Organic Position gets nearly 2.5x the impressions that the #5 Organic Position does. So even though the #5 position CTR is only 5x less than the #1 position, the number of actual clicks that #5 gets is 11x less than #1. And it gets considerably worse as you go down in position.
So what should you take away from this?
Well here is where I’m going to put my PPC hat and defend paid search.
Check out this graph from FirstPageSage on CTR by position.
Yes, the top PPC position has only a 2.1% CTR. But no, that isn’t equivalent to the 2.1% CTR of the organic #8 position. Because the top PPC position has nearly 3x the impressions as the #8 position.
Look, I’m not throwing shade on SEO. If you can get into the top organic positions on the SERP or into the top 3 in the Map Pack then that is the gold standard. But even in Local SEO that is going to be a difficult task for many of you. You are competing for limited spots and you can be at the whim of Google’s algorithm.
But being in the top PPC position? That’s only a question of budget.
And when it comes to budget, I’d rather invest first in the sure bet then put something towards the lottery ticket.
Talk to you next week,
Avi
CEO & Chief Wizard